Is This An Indication The Market Is Turning?

Fewer Phoenix Area Homes For Sale: Prices Up

A surge in buyers and a drop in foreclosures have left a shortage of houses for sale in metro Phoenix, according to a newly released report on the state of the housing market.

The shrinking inventory has prompted bidding wars and pushed up home prices in many communities.

At the end of February, the supply of homes for sale was just under 24,000, down 42 percent from a year earlier, mostly because of a 52 percent drop in foreclosures during the past year, according to the latest monthly real-estate report from Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business.

As banks take back fewer homes through foreclosure, fewer homes go to auction or back on the market.

Tuesday's report, which said that home prices could keep climbing if the inventory of homes for sale remains low, was the most optimistic from ASU since the beginning of the region's housing crash in 2007.

"Supply is tight, in a pretty extreme way, and it looks like it will stay that way for months," said Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at ASU.

Orr said that as long as supply is tight and there are more buyers than sellers, Phoenix-area home prices will continue to climb.

Metro Phoenix's median home price has steadily been increasing since last August, when it fell to a 12-year low of $113,000. The region's median for February was $124,500, up 8 percent from a year earlier.

Climbing home prices could entice more homeowners who bought before the boom to try to sell their homes.

More sellers would increase supply, balancing the market and aiding many frustrated buyers who are currently being outbid on foreclosures and short-sale homes.

"Now, I have a ton of buyers and no properties to sell them," said Diane Brennan of Scottsdale-based Keller Williams Integrity First Realty.

"I warned buyers for months they should act quickly. Many didn't pull the trigger before because they were waiting for the bottom," she said.

*Information provided by The Republic (azcentral.com) & written by Catherine Reagor

Buying a Home? The Cost is more important than the Price

We have often advised buyers to look at the COST of purchasing a house more than the PRICE of the home. Obviously, price is part of the cost equation. The other piece, assuming you are not an all cash buyer, is the mortgage rate. The mortgage rate to finance a purchase can have a dramatic impact on the overall cost. Recently, there are more people talking about the possibility that mortgage rates could begin to increase.

HSH.com studies trends in mortgage rates. They explain:

“A better economic climate almost always brings higher rates, and a lessening of the troubles in Europe from massive central bank assistance adds to the movement of money from safe havens to more risky assets, driving rates upward.”

Dan Green of The Daily Market Reports recently stated:

“The Fed sees growth coming faster than originally expected. There’s suddenly less chance that the Federal Reserve will intervene to help keep mortgage rates low. Absent Fed intervention, mortgage rates are apt to rise and Wall Street is now betting that the Fed has bowed out. With no stimulus, mortgage rates rise.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Assoc of Realtors, recently wrote:

“Mortgage rates will be starting to rise. From the 3.9 to 4.0 percent average rate in the past five months on a 30-year fixed mortgage, the new rates will soon be in the range of 4.3 to 4.6 percent.”

Yun explains his logic here.

We do not attempt to predict future interest rates. We leave that up to the experts in the field. However, we want our readers to understand the potential impact on the cost of purchasing a home if they do rise. Here is a simple table that shows, even if the PRICE of a home softens, the COST of a home could increase.

Bottom Line

Many purchasers think they should wait until they are sure that prices have hit bottom. Deciding whether or not to wait should be determined by where the COST of a home is headed.

*Information provided by The KCM Crew on March 19, 2012

Don't forget to Spring Forward (3/11/2012)

You can thank Benjamin Franklin for Daylight Saving Time (DST)... he first conceived the idea when he was 78 years old and in Paris. His concept was to conserve energy and more fully enjoy the benefits of daylight.
At 2 a.m. on Sunday, March 11 most U.S. residents will set their clocks ahead one hour for the beginning of Daylight Saving Time. However, not all states go on DST. Arizona, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will not.
Around the world, about 75 countries and territories have at least one location that observes Daylight Saving Time. 164 do not change time at all.
So, before you go to bed this Saturday night, set your clocks ahead one hour. But don’t worry; you can get back to normal time next November 4th.

*Information provided by Trails West Real Estate Blog.

Negative Equity Increasing

Negative Equity Increasing

Last Week, CoreLogic released their Negative Equity Report for the fourth quarter of 2011. The report delivered some important news. Let’s go over the key findings in the report.

What Is Negative Equity?

When a home’s current value is less than the existing mortgage on that home, the house is said to be in a ‘negative equity’ situation (other terms used to describe this situation are ‘underwater’ and ‘upside down’).

How Many Homes Are in a Negative Equity Situation?

The CoreLogic report stated:

“11.1 million, or 22.8 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. This is up from 10.7 million properties, 22.1 percent, in the third quarter of 2011.”

This is important because studies show that people in a negative equity situation are more likely to default on their mortgage payments than people who have equity in their homes. 

How Many Homes Are Approaching Negative Equity?

According to the report:

“An additional 2.5 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the fourth quarter.”

Many experts believe that housing prices will soften in the first half of 2012. That will cause a percentage of these homes to fall ‘underwater’.

Bottom Line

History has shown that a percentage of those 2 million+ homes will enter the distressed property category as some families decide it no longer makes sense to pay their mortgage. Any increase in short sales or foreclosures will impact prices in an area.

*Information provided by Keeping Current Matters.

Whitefish Montana makes Best 25 Ski Towns

Just in from National Geographic – "25 Best Ski Towns" and guess what? Whitefish, Montana is one of them! If you are contemplating a visit to Whitefish, here are some tips…

Whitefish is the gateway to Glacier National Park and grew from logging and the Great Northern Railway. The train still carries passengers East and West daily.

Whitefish Mountain Resort at Big Mountain rises stunningly above this classy western town of 5000. There is a free skier shuttle that connects the town to the mountain. The ski area is family friendly with a good first-timer terrain and an abundance of long, wide-open, roller coaster groomers that skiers and snowboarders of all abilities can enjoy. A high-speed quad speeds to the mountain’s summit, which is often engulfed in clouds and studded with thickly rimmed, white trees known as “snow ghosts.”

Experts will find ample pockets of steep and deep terrain, including an abundance of backwoods tree skiing on the mountain’s less visited north side. The world-class groomers always make Inspiration and Big Ravine cruising delights. Advanced skiers should head for the East Rim and the Picture Chutes. Crowds are rarely a problem and views from the Summit House go on for miles!

Stay:
Budget - Hibernation House
High End – The Lodge at Whitefish Lake

Eat:
Budget: Buffalo Café
Gourmet: Tupelo Grille

After ski Party: Bierstube

Shopping: Pedestrian friendly Whitefish has tons of fun and eclectic shops. Enjoy!

Here is the link for more information: http://adventure.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/trips/best-ski-towns-photos/#/whitefish-skier-montana_48135_600x450.jpg

*Information provided by Trails West Real Estate Blog & the National Geographic.

Where Are Rents Headed?

People are delaying the decision to buy a home because they are not sure where prices are headed. If they buy and prices continue to soften, they feel that they will not have purchased at the optimal moment. They reason that, if they sit and wait, they can’t be hurt. This thinking assumes that a non-decision comes without consequence

The normal retort to this thinking by people bullish on real estate is that prices may soon turn to the positive or that interest rates will start heading upward. Buy now before the cost of buying increases! Today, we want to look at this from a different angle. We want to alert our readers that their housing expense is about to increase if they continue to rent.

Currently, in most parts of the country, buying is less expensive than renting. Plus, purchasers can lock in their housing expense for the next thirty years by buying now. They will get a sensational price and a record low interest rate. What will happen if they continue to rent?

The Alternative to Buying

If a family continues to rent, they are looking at a housing expense which will rise with the market. Rental costs increase by 3% a year historically. But today’s rental market favors the landlord to a greater degree. Below is a graph of how rental prices have increased recently and where they are projected to go over the next few years based on a report from Marcus & Millichap.

According to MyApartmentMap.com, the average rent rate in Kalispell, MT for February, is as follows, 1BR for $740; 2BR $739; 3BR $802. Based on 204 apartment rentals. (below)

According to MyApartmentMap.com, between September & February Kalispell apartment rentals have increased by $27 or 3.79%.

According to MyApartmentMap.com, the average rent in each nearby city is as follows.  (below)

Bottom Line

Hoping to save by delaying the purchase of a home may result in higher housing costs while you’re waiting, thus achieving the exact opposite result. Check with a local real estate professional to determine the best option for you and your family.

*Information provided MyApartmentMap and by the KCM Crew on February 8, 2012.

When the Prophet Says Buy - BUY!

When the Prophet Says Buy – BUY!

John R. Talbott, previously a Goldman Sachs investment banker, is a bestselling author and economic consultant. When it comes to the housing market he is also a prophet. When housing prices started to skyrocket in 2003, he published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market correctly warning us that a real estate bubble was forming. Then in January 2006, he called the absolute peak of home prices in the US by releasing a new book, Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble.

Mr. Talbott, the person who accurately predicted the housing bubble and its bust, now has a new prediction – IT IS THE TIME TO BUY A HOME! In a recent article, Homes – Buy Now!, Talbott simply explains:

“I have been waiting for more than five years to offer this advice. It is now time in most cities across the country to buy a new home or refinance your existing home with thirty-year fixed rate mortgage debt.”

He goes on to explain that his conclusion is based on four different metrics, all of which favor buying today:

• Home Prices Relative to Peak Prices During the Bubble
• Home Prices Relative to Construction Costs or Replacement Costs
• Home Prices Relative to Incomes and Rents
• Home Prices in Real Terms, Not US Dollar Terms

Bottom Line

If the person who called the real estate bubble and its bust says now is the time to buy, we believe it is time to buy.

 *Information Provided by The KCM Crew on January 9, 2012